Analytics & Forecasting
ML Model v2.4 ActiveHistorical analysis, AI/ML production forecasting, and scenario modeling
Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 14:00 AWST
On Track
Forecast Accuracy (Cu)
87.3%
+2.1%vs prior model versionActive Model: ML Model v2.4
On Track
FY26 Annual Forecast (Cu)
1961.6kt
+4.6%vs FY26 guidanceAnnual Guidance: 1,876 kt guidance
On Track
Data Coverage
24months
+8.3%vs prior modelTraining Dataset: 48,291 records
Monitor
Model Confidence (Q2 FY26)
82.4%
-4.8%vs Q1 confidenceKey uncertainty: Pampa Norte risk
Quarterly Production vs Sales — Historical
13-quarter comparison (kt)
Annual Production — Multi-Commodity Trend
FY2019–FY2026 · Copper (kt) · Iron Ore (Mt) · Coal (Mt) · Nickel (kt)
Copper Price vs Production Correlation
Monthly — LME spot price (USD/t) vs actual production (kt) + AI forecast
R² = 0.74Correlation
ML Model Accuracy
Production forecast models — by commodity
CopperActive
87.3%Model v2.4 · 24,840 pts13 Mar 2026
Iron OreActive
91.2%Model v2.1 · 18,620 pts01 Mar 2026
Metallurgical CoalActive
83.7%Model v1.8 · 12,480 pts01 Mar 2026
NickelRetraining
74.4%Model v1.6 · 8,940 pts15 Feb 2026
Performance Benchmarking
| Metric ▲▼ | Current ▲▼ | Historical ▲▼ | Industry | Target | Variance ▲▼ | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ore Processed Production | 31.2 Mt/yr | 29.6 | 33 | 34.5 | high significance | ↗ +5.4% | Good |
Production Volume Production | 2,847 tons/day | 2,654 | 2,950 | 3,100 | high significance | ↗ +7.3% | Good |
Throughput Rate Production | 86.2 kt/month | 81.4 | 89 | 93 | medium significance | ↗ +3.1% | Good |
Utilisation Rate Production | 82.4 % | 79.8 | 85 | 88 | medium significance | ↘ -2.1% | Fair |
Showing 4 performance metrics
ExcellentGoodFairPoor
Scenario Modeler — FY2026
Adjust parameters to model production and revenue scenarios
Scenario Parameters
+0%
-20% (Bear)Base+20% (Bull)
+0%
-15%Base (0.87%)+15%
+0%
-10%Base (88.4%)+10%
Modeled FY26 Output
Copper Production
1961.6 kt
Modeled Revenue
$35.40B
Preset Scenarios
FY2026 Scenario Comparison
| Scenario | Cu (kt) | Fe (Mt) | Revenue | vs Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 1961.6 | 262.4 | $35.4B | — |
| Bull Case | 2084.2 | 274.8 | $38.7B | +9.3% |
| Bear Case | 1842.4 | 248.2 | $31.8B | -10.2% |